Oregon - Kentucky Primary Open Thread

David Sirota must have read this post... (0.00 / 0)

His offering this AM is "Watch for the Race Chasm Today".

http://www.openleft.com/showDi...

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:20:33 AM CDT

I abruptly decided to drive to Des Moines for Obama's speech tonight (0.00 / 0)

with a big group of friends.  It should be fun.

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by: psericks @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:30:31 AM CDT

Aha! So your early post this AM (0.00 / 0)

was due to jet lag and not a leisure morning in the south of France.  Welcome back to Chicago.

That trip should be a blast.  Are you all sure you can get in?  If you take some photos can you post them?  Or if that is a stretch, email some to me and I'll post them for you.

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:36:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've been here a week, and my sleep schedule is still totally off! (0.00 / 0)

There's no RSVP required, but we're going to do it anyway.  I'll definitely take pictures.  I might not be able to get them to you until tomorrow morning, since we're going to be driving back tonight after the rally.

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by: psericks @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:45:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'll watch my email for the photos (0.00 / 0)

Have a great time!  We're all celebrating tonight.  

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:55:35 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

This doesn't go here . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . I realize.  But I simply can't help myself . . .

Not all that interested in promoting these two articles, just the numbers . . . [Emphasis mine]

"Around 1,300 supporters - mostly women - came out to see Hillary Clinton speak last night in Lexington on the eve of the Kentucky primary when her husband came out to give her introduction, which he called "the easy job."

    http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2...

"The Portland Fire Bureau says 75,000 people showed up for the Obama rally -- a number ABC News said was the largest crowd of the entire campaign."

    http://news.opb.org/article/21...

What a stark, stark difference, don't you think?

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:03:15 PM CDT

it's an open thread (0.00 / 0)

you can share guacamole recipes if you want (but I already have one thanks).  ;-)

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:21:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Re: Recipes - Check out our tasty new logo... (0.00 / 0)

http://www.onemillionstrong.us...

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by: wizinit @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:01:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL!!!!!!!!! (0.00 / 0)

. . . Majorly way cool!!!

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:03:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

interesting Chicago Tribune article (0.00 / 0)

http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

"To Many White Voters, Race Still Matters"

I'm trying to reconcile this which has some serious internal inconsistencies:

"To attribute it solely to ignorance would be totally inaccurate," said Melody Chaney, a financial adviser in Munfordville and a Clinton supporter. "It's a matter of education, their upbringing and their background, peer pressure. There are lots of factors that contribute to this."

(It seems to me that education, upbringing, background and peer pressure have a hell of a lot to do with whether one is ignorant of a certain cultural or ethnic group.)

With this:

"I believe that he's a Muslim," said Susan Horton, 56 and white. She leaves her living room whenever Obama comes on the television. "I think that if he gets into office, there's going to be another bombing."

And I bet these folks think they're Christian.

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:29:49 PM CDT

Oh my!! . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . Yes!!!  You guys know where I was born and raised.  I know people who would never, ever consider voting for a non-white person . . . Period.

Envision a male dressed in jeans and a sleeveless t-shirt, wearing a cap with some beer logo on it, driving a souped-up red pickup truck where the Confederate flag and a gun are visible through the rear glass.  And don't stand too close as they drive by . . . because you are apt to be splatted with a wad of chewing tobacco spittle as it comes hurling through an open window.

To understand this part of our nation you must understand history.  Here Protestantism rules.  Not only that, Protestant faiths that highly value education . . . do not fare very well here.  

The statement quoted is inconsistent.  Education and those who are educated are frowned upon.  This is communicated in subtle and not-so-subtle ways.  Tradition and conformity are expected . . . change comes to places like this very, very slowly.

I found the entire article very disturbing . . . not because it wasn't true . . . but because it was.

Ms. Chaney won't mention it because it wouldn't be polite.  But I'm not polite . . . Obama won't win Kentucky because of racism and mistrust of those who are educated.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:11:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here are a couple more articles that highlight this issue . . . (0.00 / 0)

"I've written quite a bit about over the last few months about voting patterns in Appalachia.  Beginning with Super Tuesday and then the Potomac primary, the pattern became clear: many counties of Appalachia have voted by margins of over 2 to 1, and sometimes even 9 to 1 for Hillary Clinton.  It's inescapable that race is playing a factor in some voting everywhere, but that it's a much greater factor in Appalachia than anywhere else in America.  Only in Appalachia has Hillary Clinton won huge margins.  As I've written before, Obama does not appear to have a problem with white voters.  However, Appalachia has a problem with Obama."

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

I am in agreement with this.

"America is learning a lot about race this year, most recently that not all white voters are alike. There are enormous regional differences in how whites vote, differences with deep historical roots.

. . .

But Clinton's West Virginia landslide does mean that Obama, for reasons that go beyond race, has a problem with Appalachia's whites and the Scots-Irish who settled there and forever branded its culture.

. . .

These are the people whose ancestors lived and fought along the brutal borderlands between England and Scotland, and later in Northern Ireland (they are the Protestants of Ulster). Unlike other British settlers, the Scots-Irish, Webb writes, migrated "directly to the wilderness of the Appalachian Mountains, bypassing even the rudiments of colonial civilization."

    http://blog.cleveland.com/open...

I am Scotch-Irish.

Oops!!!!

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:50:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Keith, what county are you from? (0.00 / 0)

I was looking at Harlan County and it was something like 88% for Clinton, 7% for Obama.  Yikes.  But it looks like there will only be 4,000 Dem vote in the county.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

I'm not worried because I think that Obama has energized the progressive wing of the Dem party.  You remember that wing?  It's the one that made the Dem party clearly distinct from the Republicans.

I know it is a big tent, but racism and sexism can't be tolerated anymore inside the Dem party.  The year is 2008.  It's not about being PC.  It's about respect and commitment to principles.  I'm not choking up yet about some of these folks switching to McCain in the general.

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 18:45:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hart . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . the county that article highlighted.

No one will admit it.  Everything will be done to skirt this issue.  No one wants to believe it . . . but it's true.

I spoke with my sister about Obama . . . and was absolutely SHOCKED with the degree of . . . judgment . . . She would never, ever, ever call it racism.  That's why they believe all the rumors so easily . . . that he's not Christian, for example.  This offers cover for the real reason to not support Obama.

Just tragic.  I'm so embarrassed.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 18:56:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

God bless you my friend. (0.00 / 0)

You have traveled a long way to get to where you are now.

I haven't had much exposure to Kentucky but I worked with a young woman from Bowling Green who was delightful and open minded.  Also Thomas Merton who was a Cistercian living at the Abbey of Gethsemani (east of Elizabethtown) was a major influence on my life.

Sometimes I wonder if we should have started a stealth email operation that claimed Hillary Clinton was a practicing Zoroastrian.  Just for fun.

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 19:19:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL!!!! (0.00 / 0)

. . . Few there would understand what you were talking about!!!  A typical response would be something like, "We don't cotton to communists around here!"

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 19:49:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

With 24% of Kentucky votes counted . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . it's HRC 55%, Obama 41%.

Let's hope this early spread holds throughout the night.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 18:40:43 PM CDT

65% - 35% . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . with 89% reporting.

Landslide for HRC.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:09:35 PM CDT

Oops!!!! (0.00 / 0)

I gave us too much . . . should be 30% for Obama.


If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:16:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oops! (0.00 / 0)

I gave us too much.  Should be 30% for Obama.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:18:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm kicking back... (0.00 / 0)

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:28:43 PM CDT

Cool!!!! (0.00 / 0)

Congratulations to everyone who holds Hope in their hearts!!!

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:33:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Chuck Todd on the pledged delegates (0.00 / 0)

(h/t The Field)

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:37:02 PM CDT

I'm watching MSNBC . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . and the comments being made by the pundits actually make me nauseous.  

To hang your hat on the vote from one state . . . or one region of the nation . . . and extrapolate this to the remainder of the nation . . . is idiocy.

Stating that HRC wins Kentucky with a 35% margin means Obama can't win white voters . . . totally discounts Iowa, Vermont, Maine, etc., etc., etc.

WTF?  Where is the logic?  Oh . . . I forgot . . . Iowans don't count.  And Vermonters, Mainers and obviously Oregonians.  Stupid me.  Only New York, Arkansas, Pennsylvania . . . and now Kentucky . . . actually count.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:42:44 PM CDT

I switched to . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . CNN . . . and they're not much better.  Scarborough was positively glowing about HRC's win tonight . . . with a kinda' "See, we all told you!" attitude.

{{{BARF}}}

Let's move on to Oregon, shall we?

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:53:42 PM CDT

ARGH!!!!!!!! (0.00 / 0)

I am just SICK of the conversation!!!!  [CNN]

It's as if these folks are actually TRYING to drum up a race fight!!!!!

GET OFF IT!!!!!!

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:58:28 PM CDT

Back to . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . MSNBC . . . Please keep Keith Olbermann on the air.  Please.  I crave sanity.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:02:06 PM CDT

Sad news . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . Hamilton Jordon, of the Jimmy Carter administration, has just died.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:15:34 PM CDT

You won't find much sanity on cable news (0.00 / 0)

Try this page for a nice summary:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

I love this:

9:15
Matthews to Lisa Caputo: "Senator Clinton can't seem to win people who are educated. What's the problem?"

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:20:40 PM CDT

THANK YOU!!! (0.00 / 0)

I love it!!!

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:23:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Some thoughts on Kentucky . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . HRC won here tonight, big-time.  With 99% reporting, the spread is still the same . . . 65% - 30%.

There is one silver lining here . . .

Kentucky is a red state.  Very red.  So why, pray tell, did the Democrats tonight have 680,163 votes . . . and the Republicans 182,449?

Hmmm?

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:22:45 PM CDT

THAT is an interesting statistic (0.00 / 0)

I know it is more complicated than this but if 200,000 of the Dem voters cross over to McCain and both parties get a little more turnout in the general, maybe Obama still wins by 500,000 to 460,000?

It can't be that "easy" but I don't have time to research KY right now.

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:17:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is absolutely . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . lopsided.  There are way more Republicans registered in the state.  These numbers jumped out at me.  And, of course, not a soul is talking about this . . . only the HRC landslide and how unelectable Obama now is.

I'm now without TeeVee . . . was commandeered for non-political viewing.  Actually a relief.  Don't have to use near as many barf bags . . .

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:24:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

seriously (0.00 / 0)

TV without sound can be OK, or maybe while listening to Zappa.  But I don't even have cable.  I see it when I travel and I just don't see any reason to get it.

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:26:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Surely many Repubs stayed home? (0.00 / 0)

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by: jlarson @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:27:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . That's very possible, since their candidate is all set.  Just surprised that no one anywhere noticed this.  Huge, huge difference . . . in a Red state.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:29:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here's what someone said at The Field (0.00 / 0)

for KY registration data:

Democrats increased their voters by 13,259 to 1,629,845. Republicans increased their voters by 2,577 to 1,040,438. "Others" increased their voters by 497 to 186,948.

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by: jlarson @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 00:34:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama is speaking . . . (0.00 / 0)

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:30:33 PM CDT

Good to be in Iowa . . . (0.00 / 0)

Loves his wife & children . . .

Talks about Senator Kennedy . . .

"Lot of hype and too much hope", people said.  But Iowans knew better . . .

Highlights the war . . .

Values, bind us all together . . .

"We return to Iowa with a majority of the pledged delegates"

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:41:08 PM CDT

CNN has picked up on the . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . Obama win . . .

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:33:47 PM CDT

61% - 39% . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . in Oregon with 16% reporting . . . but in Obama's favor this time.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:35:19 PM CDT

We won Oregon . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . according to the major networks.

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 22:47:47 PM CDT

58% - 42% . . . (0.00 / 0)

. . . with half the votes in . . .

If we're the one's we've been waiting for . . . then what are we waiting for?!

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by: keithb7862 @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 23:07:51 PM CDT

I haven't enjoyed politics this much (0.00 / 0)

since the Bartlet administration ( http://b4a.healthyinterest.net... ).

By the campaign numbers:

1611.5 pledged dels as of this AM
 14   KY
 29   OR slightly pessimistic
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1654.5 total pledged dels
306.5 superdelegates (BO website est.)
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1961 total delegates

64 left until we hit 2025

So NOW what do superdelegates have to wait for?

Good night folks!

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by: jlarson @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 00:29:45 AM CDT