Iowa Polls: Huckabee still surging, Edwards dropping?

by: psericks

Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 13:59:42 PM CDT

Polls... I don't really think there's a need to do a lot of poll diaries here on One Million Strong.  I also like to use a lot of qualifiers when talking about them.  But there are a couple of potentially emerging trends that might be worth looking at:  (Graphs courtesy of the excellent Pollster.com)

Thesis #1. John Edwards dropping in Iowa?

There have been a couple recent Iowa polls that have led some to speculate that Edwards may be falling behind in Iowa.  As many of you know, good strategies for reading poll numbers include comparing them to an aggregate of all pollsters (as in the chart here) or comparing them to previous poll by the same pollster (and thus with the same methodology). 

Today's ARG poll showed Edwards at 15%, down from a finding of 19% the previous month and down from a high in June of 29%.  And then there was the University of Iowa poll released last week that showed him in third place at 20% behind Clinton (29%) and Obama (27%).  I've been very skeptical of ARG polls in the past, and I'll be looking for some other results.

It is, however, maybe worth pointing out just how much progress Obama has made in these ARG polls.  As recently as the end of July, ARG had Obama polliing in the low-to-mid teens.  They now show him consistently polling in the twenties.

Thesis #2.  Mike Huckabee surging?   ---- After the fold...

This is a far more compelling idea.  Despite never having raised much more than a million dollars a quarter, and despite having only a single campaign office in the state with a combined grand total of eight paid employees, and despite not having run a single television or radio advertisement, Huckabee has been consistently picked up support.  Pollster.com now gives him an average of 14.7 in Iowa, which is ahead of both Giuliani and Thompson. 

The latest ARG poll has Huckabee at 19%, up from a probable outlier of 4% in the last ARG poll a month ago after hitting 14% two months ago:

ARG 10/26-29/07 (September Results, August Results)

Romney  27 (22, 27)

Huckabee  19 (4, 14)

Giuliani  16 (21, 17)

Thompson  8  (16, 13)

McCain   14  (11, 5)

Huckabee first began showing double-digit support in a smattering of polls in late August and September, and that support has now been showing up across a range of pollsters.  

Anyway, Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen, wrote a post today (via TPM Election Central) suggesting that Huckabee might have a chance of winning the caucus...

How plausible is this?  Romney has 14 times as much cash on hand (as well as a personal fortune to kick in more as the need arises), not to mention eight times as many staff members, and has been on the air in Iowa for months.

Iowa is also Huckabee's only chance.  In the same round of ARG polling, he scored 7% in New Hampshire and 5% in South Carolina.  He also won't have the funds to run his campaign anywhere else.  

I suspect that a Huckabee victory in Iowa would be a dream scenario for Giuliani, who could then conceivably beat a deflated Romney and win New Hampshire, and Giuliani also currently leads in South Carolina.  

That might actually be the most plausible path for Guiliani to the nomination, who would otherwise have to bide his time and survive Romney victories in New Hampshire and Iowa and perhaps make a stand in South Carolina (where former Massachusetts governor Romney has not polled well or Florida (where Giuliani has dominated).  Fred Thompson who?