In case anybody doesn't frequent OpenLeft (If you haven't, now's the time to start), Chris Bowers has an excellent rundown of the numbers in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally, and what they mean in relation to each other and to election prospects. His analysis is as scientific as can be possible given the unknowns obviously involved.
I think his analysis is probably correct, although I think as of now it leans more towards an uncertain tie and I think we'd agree that at best it leans Obama, things certainly could go that way in the next few weeks. Read below for a quote and more openleft goodness:
I just thought I'd excerpt a little nugget from the Bowers piece, hope he doesn't mind:
Today, for the first time in the eleven-month history of the Democratic nomination campaign, it seems to me that Barack Obama has become the frontrunner for the nomination. From December 20th, 2006, the first day when Obama, Edwards and Clinton were all included in Iowa, New Hampshire and national polls, through May 26th, the day that Clinton regained the national lead and didn't look back for a long time, the system I have used to chart the progress of the nomination showed several lead changes from Edwards to Clinton and back again. Obama, however, never secured the lead according to the system I used. In fact, with very few interruptions, he was in third place until August 5th, at which point the campaign took on the stable, familiar, first-through-third order of Clinton, Obama and Edwards. In terms of the sheer amount of coverage it provides, the national media has assumed this order was the case since pretty much day one, but really election analysis really isn't a business the national media should dabble in, because they pretty much completely suck at it. For a long time, his lead in Iowa kept Edwards well clear of Obama in the nomination campaign, but few couple months ago that advantage became a thing of the past. Obama passed Edwards in Iowa polling averages at some point in August, and has never looked back since that time.
