Iowa Caucus Set for January 3rd?

by: psericks

Thu Oct 25, 2007 at 14:32:29 PM CDT

(h/t icebergslim) 

Chase Martyn over at Iowa Independent has a good analysis of what this means for the Democratic field.  (1) Negative ads will be hard to run over Christmas.   (2) Iowans may be just returning from holiday/New Year vacations --- meaning they would be inaccessible to campaign canvassers.  (3) A very important point about youth turnout:

No colleges or universities will be back from Winter Break by this date. Conventional wisdom is that this will make Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign to organize students difficult, but the payoffs of a good student organization will be larger if students are spread out across multiple cities rather than concentrated in a few big precincts.

I think the consequences of this are totally unclear.  Out-of-state students will most likely be gone.  On the other hand, in-state students won't have their influence diluted by being concentrated in a few precincts. 

Second, if Obama has a lot of volunteers among students, having them spread out across the state and living at home isn't so bad either --- though then they're not being motivated by their peers.  Or perhaps being at home means they'll be dragged to the caucus by their parents?  Who knows.  In all likelihood, the situation is too complex to be a net plus or a net negative.  Either way, it seems right that the stakes are higher for Obama or any youth voter turnout organization.

Obama's Youth Director Hans Riemer argued in a radio interview that the campaign would actually prefer that students be at home for the caucus.  More after the jump...

I am disappointed that they didn't go for a Saturday.  They had the opportunity to choose a date that might have dramatically increased the turnout in what is admittedly a somewhat closed process.  It would have been a bolder move anyway. 

Second, I'm not sure why they're dedicated to having it as early as possible.  Giving the campaigns an extra two days clear of the holidays to do a get out of the vote effort, to rally their supporters, as well as giving everyone some time off for the holidays, would probably have led to a more interesting and less hung-over caucus.

But do we at least finally, at long last, have a firm and solid date for the caucus?  Um, maybe not quite yet.  Martyn points out:

And one additional note: although the Democratic State Central Committee plans to recommend the January 3 date, it is still not 100% certain. There is a chance that some prominent, vocal opponents of a January 3 date will emerge, and no one is sure what New Hampshire will do, too. Still, that the Iowa Democratic Party is publicly announcing their recommendation means that the January 3 date is likely to stick.

Iowa Independent is a great blog, by the way.  You should check it out.

I'll have more for you about youth turnout and the Iowa caucus...