| I wrote a diary earlier, entitled, Obama and Iowa.
It was a speculative diary, much from the rumbles of the ground, and quite that Obama was making inroads, even though, it was not being published in the MSM.
Well, much has happened since that diary, for many Obama Advocates and Supporters to be hopeful of.
First, the latest Washington Post/ABC Poll, which has Obama at 30, Clinton 26, Edwards 22.
If you look at the matrix and specifics of the poll, a few things do jump out. Clinton has not moved. Which indicates, as many on the ground have been saying, she has hit her ceiling, stagnate. And Edwards has faltered, and this appears to have been ongoing since the summer. This does make one wonder, as I have heard from the ground, is his support shifting? But to whom?
Then there have been several polls from New Hampshire, over the course of the past three weeks. It is showing an erosion for Clinton, Obama picking up some points and Edwards (depending on polling) is stagnate or has picked up a few points. Which makes one wonder, is this race really fluid? I say yes.
howardpark's diary on his canvassing in New Hampshire is a must read. Why? Because it made some conclusions that have been stated throughout the New Hampshire polling, that the independents are staunchly on the fence, watching. Which makes this paragraph of howardpark's essential:
Change is the Issue, Hillary is the Defining Figure
Hillary Clinton is the defining figure in the Democratic race. Even without any prompting those (relatively few) NH voters who want to talk a little politics often begin with their well-formed opinion about the Junior Senator from New York. "It won't be her"..."She's my choice"..."Anybody but Hillary" were what NH voters told me at their doors. For many, deciding what candidate to vote for is a decision tree. To vote for Hillary or not to vote for Hillary is the first branch on the decision tree. There are just no agnostics when it comes to Hillary Clinton. It's not just a personality thing with Sen. Clinton, some like her but see her as a figure from the past and they want to move on. Others see her as a history-making champion. Obama & Edwards are still much less known beyond the surface though everybody has at least heard of them.
Then Populista diaried about ten local Lee County officials, supporting Obama, and the Lee County Chairman, switching from Edwards to Obama.
There is nothing strikingly surprising here, but the switching of County Chairs is a surprise. I don't know if this happens regularly or not, but some have indicated that it cannot be a good sign for the Edwards Campaign.
This is what David Yepsen had to say about all three campaigns:
""I think Barack Obama can be thankful for his good organization," Yepsen said. "I think he's probably got one of the best. I think he can be thankful his message is starting to click a little bit. People are - Democrats want to see some change. And, I think they like what he's saying about that. So, I think he can be thankful for both of those things."
What about Hillary Clinton?
Yepsen: "I think if you're Hillary Clinton, you're thankful for your husband. Because it's like having another candidate here for you. He gets crowds just as big, brings out new people. They can put him in other - in certain areas and put her in another area. So, I think he's her biggest asset in the Democratic caucus fight here."
And John Edwards?
Yepsen: "I think if you're John Edwards, you're thankful this is going to be over with on January third. John Edwards has not been doing well lately, he's slipping a little in these numbers. That's not a good trend line for him. He's got to get this thing over with fast."
Yepsen said he fears Edwards could fall so far that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, currently running fourth, could slip into third place - and would therefore be most thankful for that.
"I think one of the things that could happen is that Edwards could collapse, sag, fall apart, not do well," Yepsen said. "And that leaves Richardson in real striking distance of third place. Richardson has run a good campaign. He's got some support here. If I were Edwards I'd be worried about sagging so far it could enable Richardson to take third place."
For Edwards, I am not hoping this will happen, but again, public financing may be an issue here. In the end, we will see.
And MOJO, momentum.
That happens for the campaign with the energy and drive. Right now that is Barack Obama's.
We know that Team Clinton is now trying to lower the expectations game and throw the meme of Iowa is for Obama to lose. Not only is this ridiculous, but totally stupid. Iowa starts the whole Democratic Political Process, period. Every campaign knows this (or should), but Obama figured it out quick.
For anyone to have taken Iowa for granted, up until now, well, bad strategy on your campaigns part. Iowa, at this juncture, is for everyone to win.
Lastly, as howardpark emphasized, this is about change. He saw this from the ground and the Washington Post/ABC Poll picked up on this. Not only is this happening in New Hampshire, but this is breaking out in Iowa. Now everyone knows it.
If you want change, you must caucus for it and vote for it. The change candidate is Barack Obama. |
