| The convoluted primary system is hard to get your hands around. So what strategy do you pursue at this stage of the game, as the fist voters are making up their minds? The task is not made easier by the polling data and how it is presented by the media (which I tried to put in context in the "Idiot's Guide to Public Opinion Polls and the Media in This Primary Season" ( http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/markwiznitzer/CJkg). For these figures and reports misrepresent the true state-of-play and ignore the dynamics of the caucuses and their effect on the subsequent primaries. But the large number of candidates and "undecideds" suggest a winning approach and may help to explain why polls have been notoriously off target in predicting primary results. Limited anecdotal evidence from two sources in Davenport suggests Iowa voters are increasingly committing to support Barack Obama in the caucuses. Some previously "undecided" and many "leaning" voters are signing pledge cards. Every such commitment to Barack Obama is, of course, critical to doing well on caucus night. But the rules of the caucus -- and the staggered nature of the primaries --could ultimately benefit our campaign. Only candidates who meet the "viability threshold", which is anywhere from 15% to 25% of attendees in an Iowa precinct caucus, continue to the final round determining the allocation of delegates. This means a substantial percentage of caucus attendees, supporters of candidates who do not meet the threshold, are likely to realign themselves with a "second choice". In addition, there is a built-in incentive and mechanism for supporters of some candidates to combine their excess votes to take a delegate that otherwise could strengthen a front-runner's tally. With such a broad field of candidates, a lot of people will end up voting for someone who may not have been their first choice. So being the second choice of many voters is a distinct advantage. The Iowa results have a similar effect on other states. Based on my own experience canvassing in New Hampshire, many people do not firmly decide who they will vote for until the final days of the campaign. Especially for these undecideds, the Iowa results help to flag which candidates are viable and which are not. For many voters, the surviving candidates may not include their first choice. There is "momentum" to support a second choice, if that person has fared better in the caucuses. The strategy of our primary campaign at this stage is to sow the seeds for people to identify Obama as their first choice, but otherwise also to keep them open to considering him as their second choice. It is a strategy well-suited to Barack Obama, who has enjoyed high "favorable" ratings, and it is unlikely to help a front-runner with high "negatives". |
