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Pakistan Debate Post-Mortem

by: Kimball

Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 11:43:19 AM CST


(Great summation and reminder of the debate around Obama's Pakistan speech a few months ago. - promoted by psericks)

Crossposted at DailyKos 

Or, as an alternative title "Barack Obama Had it Right (Again)"

There's an excellent diary up on the rec list now concerning Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf and his exploitation of the Bush administration's foreign policy as it focuses so myopically on its "War on Terror." We may sit here and observe that what is happening in Pakistan now is perhaps a predictable consequence of designing a foreign policy in Pakistan that relies solely upon bolstering the existing government against our archetypal mutual enemy off in the mountains at the Pakistan border. We might further believe that the present turmoil - the suspension of democracy, is a logical extension of the militarism we fostered supporting the conflict in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union in the 80s, or an extension of our tacit acceptance of the military rule and spreading of Sharia law under Zia-ul-Haq beginning in '77. However, while we sit here drawing those historical threads I would like to remind us of a discussion we had, here and elsewhere, some three months ago.

Kimball :: Pakistan Debate Post-Mortem
On August 1, Barack Obama delivered this foreign policy message at the Wilson Center:


As President, I would make the hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military aid to Pakistan conditional, and I would make our conditions clear: Pakistan must make substantial progress in closing down the training camps, evicting foreign fighters, and preventing the Taliban from using Pakistan as a staging area for attacks in Afghanistan.

I understand that President Musharraf has his own challenges. But let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will.

And Pakistan needs more than F-16s to combat extremism. As the Pakistani government increases investment in secular education to counter radical madrasas, my Administration will increase America's commitment. We must help Pakistan invest in the provinces along the Afghan border, so that the extremists' program of hate is met with one of hope. And we must not turn a blind eye to elections that are neither free nor fair -- our goal is not simply an ally in Pakistan, it is a democratic ally.


Yesterday Devilstower front-paged Romney's old response to Obama's language on Pakistan, Willard Hearts Dictators. The response (h/t viralvoice) from conservatives was (here's that word again) "predictable"- he want's to attack Pakistan- our ally! talk about all the reckless, inexperienced, irresponsible foreign policy statements- what a joke the Democratic field is with respect to national security!!

It's amusing how nearly everyone who responded to Obama's Wilson Center speech appeared to ignore the paragraph following "we will act."

What was perhaps less predictable than the hypocrisy and insanity of the right was the invective and histrionics of the left. Jerome Armstrong:


I would agree that it it a threshold question: for those inside the beltway, like war proponants Pollock and O'Hanlon, who still think we can win in Iraq, it's a matter of showing you are not a weak Democrat; but for progressive Democrats that want a more peaceful leadership in the world shown by our next President, it fails the threshold of getting us out of picking fights in the mid-east, and discarding the Bush doctrine of unilateral pre-emptive attacks. If a unilateral pre-emptive strategy of attacking a 'target' is the doctrine, then why isn't Saudi Arabia, where Al Qaeda began and home to most of the 9/11 terrorists, also a potential target? The unilateral pre-emptive doctrine is profoundly un-american and anti-diplomatic in both its actions and ramifications.

The one thing this has done for Obama, is put him in the center, not Clinton, of the dialogue over what's going to happen next in the middle-east, and everyone is going to be reacting to his positions. For Richardson, who also didn't vote for the war, it's an opening to become the one candidate who did not vote for sending troops into Iraq and will pull completely out. For Edwards, it's an opportunity to further differentiate himself to the left of Obama. If this doesn't give the opening that Bill Richardson and John Edwards were looking for to criticize Obama directly, I don't know what does. Heck, even Clinton has the opportunity to move to the left of Obama over the issue of a the US launching a unilateral pre-emptive attack inside Pakistan. Because if Pakistan is game, why isn't Saudi Arabia as well?


While the majority of respondents to Meteor Blades' poll supported Obama's statements, here at DailyKos there were a number of views posted that were quit sympathetic with Armstrong's take:

link
link
link
link
link

And, in the end, the other Democratic presidential candidates came out presenting a take on Obama's speech that was far too similar to the attacks of the Right.

Chris Dodd:


 My view was when you raise -- issues are being raised about Pakistan, understand that while General Musharraf is no Thomas Jefferson, he may be the only thing that stands between us and having an Islamic fundamentalist state in that country. And so what I’d like to see him change -- the reality is if we lose him, then what we face is an alternative that could be a lot worse for our country.

I think it’s highly responsible -- or irresponsible for people who are running for the presidency and seek that office to suggest we may be willing unilaterally to invade a nation here who we’re trying to get to be more cooperative with us in Afghanistan and elsewhere.


Hillary Clinton:


Well, I do not believe people running for president should engage in hypotheticals. And it may well be that the strategy we have to pursue on the basis of actionable intelligence -- but remember, we’ve had some real difficult experiences with actionable intelligence -- might lead to a certain action.

But I think it is a very big mistake to telegraph that and to destabilize the Musharraf regime, which is fighting for its life against the Islamic extremists who are in bed with al Qaeda and Taliban. And remember, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. The last thing we want is to have al Qaeda-like followers in charge of Pakistan and having access to nuclear weapons.

So you can think big, but remember, you shouldn’t always say everything you think if you’re running for president, because it has consequences across the world. And we don’t need that right now.   


AFL-CIO forum, one week after Obama's speech

Bill Richardson

"My international experience tells me that we should address this problem with tough diplomacy with General Musharraf first, leaving the military as a last resort. It is important to reach out to moderate Muslim states and allies to ensure we do not unnecessarily inflame the Muslim world," said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, another 2008 Democratic presidential candidate.


Our other candidates either suggested that Musharraf should not be repudiated because of our alliance with Pakistan (i.e. military strategy trumps democratic ideals) or rather implied that Obama was not strictly wrong but far too vocal in his being right. We see where that sort of tacit acceptance gets us now. Between Dodd and Richardson I can look back on these pompous declarations of foreign relations experience and diplomatic credentials and consider them perhaps more a detriment than a strength, particularly when that experience leads one to (falsely) portray Pakistan as a bipolar state balanced between a fragile Musharraf and Islamic extremists. While Edwards later made statements that were broadly similar to Obama's position, at the time he too criticized Obama's speech, misinterpreting that Obama was proposing the movement of ground troops into the country.

Three months ago, our other candidates and our fellows in the leftist blogosphere defiantly opposed an in-depth review of our foreign policy with respect to Pakistan. Three months later- here we are.
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thanks for the promote, psericks :) (4.00 / 1)
Had been thinking about writing this diary for the past couple days and finally decided it was time to dig up the quotes.

A timely reminder... (4.00 / 3)

I am a foregin policy oriented Obama supporter and I need no convincing.  Most progressives don't get Senator Obama's foreign policy but it is a dog-whistle to me of a refreshing, cogent review of some very failed conventional wisdom.

I remarked elsewhere that Obama had identified the self-evident flaw in our narrative on 'the global war on terrorism' and he did.  Lot's of people didn't 'get' it, unfortunately.

The problem is that so few US citizens really have a grasp of what is going on and the US media is not a big help in understanding it.

The diary you linked to at dKos, for example, was a very simplistic portrayal which totally missed Bhutto's role in last weekend's events.  There is a good diary here from jlarson which is worth a read. 



true... (0.00 / 0)
The kos diary I linked to viewed the whole affair only in the light of Bush and Musharraf, while Pakistan reflects the failures of a foreign policy approach both sides of the aisle have bought into for the past 6 years, and a perspective which is still somewhat oversimplifying Pakistan's politics. Bhutto is playing her role well in casting herself as a potential compromise, and all the while a government led by some amalgamation of Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif is never going to lead to any particularly substantive reform.

I'd pondered writing a diary back when the news came out that both Bhutto and Sharif would be returning, to the effect that recycling exiled prime ministers would never change the system that brought these people to power in the first place.


[ Parent ]
Well, that's true... (0.00 / 0)

But the notion that we are sitting on a populist powder keg in Pakistan has some merit.  Personally I see the recent events, including Bhutto's stage-managed presence as the populist, secular alternative, as an extra-legal extension of the power-sharing' arrangement which never took account of democratic principles in Pakistan in the first place, except in a symbolic sense.  And they all needed to do something to get the activist judiciary, who are the only actors who stood on principle, out of the equation.

I am not sure it is a bad idea, mind you, I just don't buy that Bhutto wasn't in on this from the get-go.  In any case, Obama's position on Pakistan was prescient on several levels.  The problem is we are nowhere near a condition where any overt action on the part of the US is likely to be anything but disruptive.  And al-Qaeda is as far out of our reach as ever.  Probably more than it was three months ago, if such a thing is possible. 



[ Parent ]
my view is somewhat simplistic... (0.00 / 0)
I think there is a political force manifested by Pakistani populism... I hope that that pressure leads the powers that be to substantive rather than symbolic change, but I am uncertain how that is to be accomplished without there being populist leaders in power. Dumbing it down to a class perspective, I've always felt revolutions come about through empowerment of the middle, and that middle may have been severely damaged with the events over the weekend.

[ Parent ]
Well... (4.00 / 1)

It was certainly a sudden end to one of the few national judicial revolts I am aware of in parliamentary politics.  It was middle-class lawyers being tear-gassed and arrested, both in recent months and in the events of last weekend.  So from that point of view it was not a victory for the constitution.

It seems to me that there are several factions which are reluctant to see a powerful Islamist bloc in a newly constituted, freely elected Pakistani assembly.  I am still inclined to believe that Bhutto has a pre-ordained role in the outcome of the coup, unclear as things now are.  The insistence of Musharraf, yesterday, that elections will proceed as scheduled in January is revealing but no-one has yet discussed the changes to the constitution which might be made in anticipation of that event.  And Musharraf has made unkept promises on elections before.

And Bhutto is denying previous reports of collusion and refusing to meet with Musharraf, in spite of expectations when she left for Islamabad.  And she is calling for united protest by the various parties, including her longtime adversary, Sharif's PML-N.  She continues to agitate for 'foreign investigation' of the 18 October bombing, clearly casting doubt on the authenticity of the government's denials of involvement.  But no indication of any restriction of her freedom or access to the media, notwithstanding her claims of 'martial law' and in fact her adversarial comments are widely reported in the independent Pakistani press.  We will be watching with interest the PPP rally in Rawalpindi scheduled for Friday. 

Obviously a populist, secular, prosperous democracy is Pakistan's, and our, preferred outcome.  It seems to me that the stakes are considered too high for some to leave that outcome to the vagaries of electoral politics and may be stacking the deck just to be sure.  At this point I am not even sure I am opposed to that idea, considering the alternatives.  My concern is that in the event of a stable result the move toward a truly open political process is shelved, as often happens.  We shall see.

The fact remains that al-Qaeda is out of our reach, for now.  I think it is safe to say that our attempt to dismantle the Taliban and al-Qaeda, originating with the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, is presently in stalemate if not threatened with strategic failure.



[ Parent ]
that is a bit unusual... (0.00 / 0)
I'm sitting here envisioning what a similar disturbance in the judicial system over here would look like. The GOP hasn't even imagined what "judicial activism" really is...


Obviously a populist, secular, prosperous democracy is Pakistan's, and our, preferred outcome.  It seems to me that the stakes are considered too high for some to leave that outcome to the vagaries of electoral politics and may be stacking the deck just to be sure.  At this point I am not even sure I am opposed to that idea, considering the alternatives.  My concern is that in the event of a stable result the move toward a truly open political process is shelved, as often happens.  We shall see.

I'm unconvinced that stacking the deck is even necessary. Musharraf has been antagonizing both the moderates/leftists and the Islamists at the same time, the center-right and military backing is all he has left. For all his nominal support, it seems almost that Musharraf's continued hold over Pakistani politics perpetuates Islamist political standing rather than suppressing it. Certainly, that is a conclusion which is open to debate and certainly cannot be taken for granted.

Militarily Al Qaeda is out of reach for the time being- we need to pay attention to an outcome of the Pakistani political crisis that motivates societal opposition to the Islamists, granted that there's probably very little the international community could do overtly to effect such a resolution.


[ Parent ]
Well... (0.00 / 0)

The opacity of Pakistani politics leaves plenty of room for doubt and speculation.  And I agree that the political situation in Pakistan at large is the immediate issue, not prosecuting our war with al-Qaeda.  Typically Pakistan has been ruled via a coalition majority, from memory, which is where we are probably headed again.

My doubt is that anyone in Pakistan is really motivated to test the strength of Islamist support with a vote, but they don't seem to be registering significant reported electoral support, although the undecided figures in the following article may be indicitive:

Despite Musharraf’s insistence that his presence was important to curb terrorism, 52 per cent rated democracy as the best antidote to the menace, only 10 per cent thought the Army rule could be effective, and just 10 per cent thought an equal partnership between the Army and a democratically-elected civilian government could help.

In fact, an overwhelming 82 per cent thought Pakistan was headed in the wrong direction. And it isn’t because of terrorism, for 69 per cent thought restoration of democracy was Pakistan’s most pressing need, as against 30 per cent who rated curbing militancy as the country’s priority number one.

Asked who among the leaders is best suited for Pakistan, 28 per cent in Karachi, 25 per cent in Lahore, and 23 per cent in Rawalpindi-Islamabad backed Benazir; 9 per cent in Karachi, 49 per cent in Lahore, and 35 per cent in Rawalpindi-Islamabad favoured Sharif; 31 per cent in Karachi, 7 per cent in Lahore, and 14 per cent in the twin-cities supported Musharraf.

Asked which alliance they would vote for if election were held tomorrow, 38 per cent in Karachi, 26 per cent in Lahore and 28 per cent in Rawalpindi-Islamabad mentioned a Benazir-led alliance.

For a Sharif-led alliance, it was 57 per cent in Lahore, 37 per cent in Rawalpindi-Islamabad, and only 14 per cent in Karachi. Surprisingly, 32 per cent in Karachi and 25 per cent in Rawalpindi-Islamabad said they would vote neither.

Mariana Baabar - The News Oct 07 

My hunch is that Bhutto and the PPP have an inside track to power with a weakening Musharraf and I am still suspicious that the suspension of the constitution will result in some constitutional 'reform' which provides a firewall against an unpredictable electoral outcome.  Bhutto is prohibited from serving a third term as things now stand.  But the sooner there is an election the better and everyone, so far, seems to agree about that.  We shall be watching events in Pakistan closely in weeks to come.



[ Parent ]
Looks like... (4.00 / 1)

Bhutto is making her move:

She also called for a "long march" starting next Tuesday, 13 November, from Lahore to Islamabad, if her key demands were not met. They are: 
  • For the state of emergency to be called off, and the constitution restored
  • For General Musharraf to stand down as head of the army
  • For elections to be held  by mid-January
  • For the release of all lawyers, judges and activists arrested in the last few days

"How many people can they put behind bars? We will produce so many that they will not have enough jails," she said.

BBC - 7 Nov 07

 

There are still some interesting omissions from her call to populism, however, namely her political opponents: 

Ms Bhutto was speaking after meeting other opposition groups in Islamabad - though some significant players were missing.  The important MMA (United Council of Action) - an alliance of Islamic parties - and the PML-N party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif were not there.  Nor was the Movement for Justice Party of former cricket star Imran Khan.  BBC - 7 Nov 07 

I am still at the 'Hmm...' stage on this and looking forward to hearing about the elections, and the constitutionality of them.  It is interesting to note that Bhutto's demands for ending the emergency and early elections have been tacitly promised by Musharraf already.



[ Parent ]
And now this... (0.00 / 0)

ISLAMABAD: The president is contemplating to bring about important changes in the hierarchy of the civilian intelligence gathering agencies and as the first step, the Intelligence Bureau (IB) will have a new Director General in place of retired Brigadier Syed Ejaz Shah.

Shah was made controversial by former prime minister and the leader of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Benazir Bhutto when she accused him of hatching a conspiracy to kill her. He will be offered an ambassadorial slot upon relinquishing the incumbent office.

[snip]

Well-placed sources told The News here on Wednesday that the president was planning to reshuffle senior bureaucracy, including the people who mattered before going for any other major action.

The News - 8 Nov 07

Shucks, that's the second accused intelligence insider gone since the emergency began.  But Bhutto's PPP activists were arrested today in hundreds to prevent tomorrow's march.  What gives?  Hmm... Indeed.

 



[ Parent ]
de facto collusion... (0.00 / 0)
sometimes works better than explicit collusion?

[ Parent ]
Well, until further notice... (0.00 / 0)
That's what I'm thinking.  We'll see how this weekend unfolds.  Exciting stuff in any case, for all concerned.  THere have been bomb threats against this march.

[ Parent ]
such an interpretation... (0.00 / 0)
seems to be becoming less and less likely. But then, your comment earlier on the opacity of Pakistani politics remains quite apt. We'll have a better idea of how this all will pan out in a few months, and perhaps not at all before then.

[ Parent ]
Oops... (0.00 / 0)
Guess so.  Hmm... Mushraff says February now.  This weekend could be a problem.  Stay tuned.

[ Parent ]
And... (0.00 / 0)

ISLAMABAD: Exiled ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif is ready to immediately join hands with PPP leader Benazir Bhutto yet again to launch a joint one-point campaign only for restoration of the deposed judges of the Supreme Court.

Nawaz thinks that in the frenzy over lifting of the emergency and restoration of the Constitution, the great sacrifice of the judges who showed character and courage, may be forgotten.

Sources confirmed to The News that in response to an SOS message from Ms Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif responded positively from Jeddah, much to the surprise of the PPP chairperson. High-level contacts between PPP and PML-N leaders have already begun. Makhdoom Amin Fahim contacted Raja Zafrul Haq in Islamabad, Jehangir Badar spoke to Mian Shahbaz Sharif in London while Syed Ghous Ali Shah has been contacted by Rehman Malik as usually he contacts him for such messages.

The emphasis of both the sides on forming the alliance is different. The PPP wants to oust Musharraf and Nawaz says let’s first restore the SC judges and then oust Musharraf.

Benazir Bhutto is feeling greatly betrayed at the hands of General Pervez Musharraf these days since her return from Dubai. In her message to Nawaz she quietly handed sent a very brief list of her own terms and conditions to form a new alliance against Musharraf.

After exchanging initial notes through their emissaries, both the former prime ministers are expected to make a direct telephonic contact soon. Nawaz Sharif has also written a letter to all the judges who refused to take oath under the PCO saluting them for their brave act. He calls them “national heroes”.

The News - 9 Oct 07

 

You have to be charmed by Pakistani politics. 



[ Parent ]
The plot thickens, or thins... (0.00 / 0)
 

Well, now that the march has been stifled Bhutto's house arrest has been lifted and, guess what:

'Mock conflict'

But is the falling-out quite what it seems?

More cynical observers think Friday's dramas in Islamabad and elsewhere are an exercise in mutual face-saving, a clandestine understanding that is meant to benefit both.

According to these observers, the masses in Pakistan are not yet ready to come out in full support of political leaders against a government bent on preventing street protests.

  This, they say, was known to Ms Bhutto when she called Friday's public meeting in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. 

  Her subsequent detention has helped preserve the "mythical name" of the Bhuttos in Pakistan. 

And, the cynics say, has also negated the impression that she, a self-declared champion of democracy, is in cahoots with Gen Musharraf, a military dictator who came to power by deposing an elected government.

As for Gen Musharraf, a mock conflict with Ms Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) affords him time to get the revamped Supreme Court to endorse the legality of his re-election as president.

M Ilyas Khan - BBC 9 Nov 07 

 

Cynical observers indeed.  Remember, you heard it here first... 

 



[ Parent ]
REQUIRED READING (4.00 / 3)

James Traub's foreign-policy profile of Barack in this past Sunday's New York Times Magazine.

A fair-minded, telling, and somewhat sobering analysis.



Wow... (0.00 / 0)
That's fantastic, thanks for the link.

[ Parent ]
Wow is right (4.00 / 1)

I'm disappointed, though -- and quite surprised, given how much of this campaign's media narrative
has been about the differences in Obama's and Clinton's approaches to foreign policy -- that no one
seems to be picking up on Traub's insightful take.

Eerily similar to Obama's own substantive, nuanced "articulations" on the subject, which -- as Traub
rightly observes -- have been like so many trees falling in an unpopulated forest, while the media
gives Clinton a pass for offering nothing more than a few smug riffs and zingers, peppered with
constant reminders that she's married to You Know Whom.

Equally disappointing is that that neither Traub's nor Andrew Sullivan's excellent new essay is to
be found anywhere on the campaign's Web site -- nor is the campaign emailing these pieces to
supporters.

The fact is, both Sullivan and Traub offer finely tuned analyses that "get" Obama better than I've
seen demonstrated by any other observer in weeks, perhaps months.

I consistently fail to "get" the campaign's media-leveraging strategy -- and often find myself
wondering if it even has one.



[ Parent ]
Hard to say... (0.00 / 0)

I would certainly be wiling to run with a MyDD diary armed with your link and our shared perception but defer to your first rights.

My frustration is that the electorate, including the blogging community which should know better, is so awash with the memes of the 'global war on terrorism' that any sane perception of our foreign policy is dismissed, as per the 'naive and irresponsible' frame of reference.

Personally I don't think it is essential to promote Obama for what he really is, a sound, substantive foreign policy orientated candidate, though that would be nice.  But the time seems ripe to counter the 'naive and irresponsible' perception at least.  That has been probably the most damaging tactic used against him so far and it has not a shred of truth, there's got to be some leverage to shift that perception and it would be worth doing.  Just my two bits... 



[ Parent ]
Someone should write it (0.00 / 0)
I caught the Traub article reference from icebergslim's post and enjoyed it very much.  I wrote a comment at myDD some time ago that expressed similar ideas:

There aren't many US politicians who can stroll through an African village with his/her grandmother.

The "good people" at myDD do not seem to be interested in complex or nuanced foreign policy issues in my opinion.

But Shaun I think a diary from you or horizonr would have a good chance of catching a few eyes and getting some traction with some.


[ Parent ]
It's yours (0.00 / 0)

You're much more "foreign-policy savvy" than I am -- a diary from you on this would carry more weight.

Cheers.



[ Parent ]
Support (0.00 / 0)

I will of course comment in support of anything you write.



[ Parent ]
Cheers... (0.00 / 0)
It would be an appropriate time and your link is inspiring.  It's all about momentum now.

[ Parent ]
glad you guys are taking care of it... (0.00 / 0)
dropped by MyDD again for the first time in a while. That place is an absolute pit. Had been thinking of crossposting this diary over there simply because of the reference to Armstrong and his "just like Bush" rhetoric.

[ Parent ]
Yeah... (0.00 / 0)
I'll get to it as soon as I can.  Pressures of work do intrude sometimes, sadly, so I will probably not get to this until tomorrow.  MyDD is quickly losing it's reputation for thoughtful discussion but it still gets a lot of exposure.

[ Parent ]
Some more Pakistan (0.00 / 0)
from TPM


In fact, however, a considerable amount of the money the U.S. gives to Pakistan is administered not through U.S. agencies or joint U.S.-Pakistani programs. Instead, the U.S. gives Musharraf's government about $200 million annually and his military $100 million monthly in the form of direct cash transfers. Once that money leaves the U.S. Treasury, Musharraf can do with it whatever he wants. He needs only promise in a secret annual meeting that he'll use it to invest in the Pakistani people. And whatever happens as the result of Rice's review, few Pakistan watchers expect the cash transfers to end.


No... (0.00 / 0)
And a big chunck of it finds it's way back into the US military-industrial complex coffers, too.  In fact some observers are wary that Pakistan's big military infrastructure spends for big ticket items, like jet fighters and lavish quanitites of spares, are an ominous development for a country as unstable as Pakistan.  I'm not a doomsday proponent but you have to wonder at the motivation of some procurements by the Pakistan military establishment, and their motives.

[ Parent ]

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